Multi-model comparison

When models agree, confidence is high. Divergence between ECMWF and GFS on snowfall totals is the clearest early signal that a forecast is unsettled.

Agreement

88/100

Excellent

Models compared

5

Snowfall spread

0.4cm

Max-temp spread

2.2°C

Snowfall

Daily snowfall by model

Temperature

Daily maximum by model

Day by day

Confidence by forecast day

DayRatingScoreSnow spreadTemp spreadWhy
TodayExcellent880.4cm2.2°C5 models compared. Snowfall spread 0.3cm, max-temp spread 2.2°C.
WedExcellent812.7cm1.6°C5 models compared. Snowfall spread 2.7cm, max-temp spread 1.6°C.
ThuGood720cm5.6°C5 models compared. Snowfall spread 0.0cm, max-temp spread 5.6°C.
FriFair590cm7.7°C5 models compared. Snowfall spread 0.0cm, max-temp spread 7.7°C, reduced for forecast range.
SatFair540cm8.1°C5 models compared. Snowfall spread 0.0cm, max-temp spread 8.1°C, reduced for forecast range.
SunFair500cm8.3°C5 models compared. Snowfall spread 0.0cm, max-temp spread 8.3°C, reduced for forecast range.
MonFair460cm8.5°C5 models compared. Snowfall spread 0.0cm, max-temp spread 8.5°C, reduced for forecast range.

Reference

Models in the ensemble

  • ECMWF IFSecmwf_ifs025
  • NOAA GFSgfs_seamless
  • DWD ICONicon_seamless
  • CMC GEMgem_seamless
  • BOM ACCESS-Gbom_access_global